Romanian Parliamentary Elections 2024: Results, News, Opinions

Romania’s Parliamentary elections on December 1st, 2024 are just over, breaking some records, keeping Romania on its pro-European path (but barely) and leaving the doors open for both political crisis and surprise alliances.

With Romania being in an unprecedented political crisis at the moment, and with independent extremist Calin Georgescu leading the first round of the presidential race, Romania faces a truly pivotal moment.

The rising popularity of nationalist and extremist parties – following the trend of what’s happening all over Europe – is obvious, as three such parties managed to get into the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate: AUR (second-placed in the elections, SOS and POT).

This article offered live updates during the Parliamentary Elections, and will still be updated if any new developments pop up (which is doubtful). Read the latest updates below, in reverse-chronological order, and check out the full results afterward.

Romanian Parliamentary Elections Live Updates (Finished)

Update 8 AM, Dec 2nd: The picture is clear now with 99.50% of the votes counted. Here is the screenshot for posterity, followed by a few comments:

• PSD: 22.57%
• AUR: 18.17%
• PNL: 14.39%
• USR: 12.14%
• SOS: 7.63%
• UDMR: 6.45%
• POT: 6.28%

I only listed the political parties that got over 5% of the votes, the minimum required to gain representatives in the parliament.

In terms of surprises, nothing major happened, even though the results are as fragmented as they are. However, it’s worth noting that USR got a much lower score than their Presidential candidate Elena Lasconi in the first round of the Presidential Elections.

I was expecting them to get over 17% of the votes, but this didn’t happen. Most likely, some of their voters turned to PNL and other parties (we have smaller ones, like REPER or Forta Dreptei who also snatched some votes from them, but did not get enough to matter).

I am also surprised with the numbers of UDMR (Hungarian party). It shows that the Hungarian minority understood the importance of these elections. Unlike previous years, they voted in huge numbers and got a massive result for their political party, which some believed wouldn’t even make it in the parliament.

What about forming a majority? There are various scenarios in play, including one that sees PSD, PNL, and UDMR governing without USR if they can secure the support of some individuals from other parties. Very difficult to do, though.

The most logical thing to do would be for USR to be invited to the alliance and rule with the other three parties for the next few years. But since these political parties have been at each other’s throat for years, it will be difficult.

The extremist party AUR might also be the key to another unlikely alliance (together with PSD and PNL), but this is again an improbable match.

In conclusion, even though the extremists didn’t manage to secure a big enough win to rule Romania, the results are fragmented, and forming a majority will be challenging.

Update 11:40 PM: Over 29% of the votes are counted. While it’s still early to consider them final, it’s relatively clear that seven parties will get over 5% (the minimum required by law): PSD, AUR, PNL, USR, UDMR, SOS, and POT.

Since this is the final update before the morning, I have a personal opinion: PSD will end at around 20%, followed by AUR with similar numbers, with USR coming in third at over 15%. I wouldn’t be surprised if SENS would manage to get over 5% either, but their numbers are highly dependent on the diaspora votes.

Of course, these are just opinions. We’ll let the numbers decide – and I’ll keep you updated!

Update 11 PM: 11.58% of the votes were counted and we’re starting to have a clearer picture of the results, although it’s still early. Remember: the smaller cities/sections are counted first, and usually the larger ones vote differently.

However, at the moment, you can see the results below:

Two parties are seen above with important scores: Partidul Social Democrat Unit (PSD Unit) and SENS – the former might’ve received votes from people who intended to vote for PSD, having a very similar logo too.

SENS was apparently promoted by others as Calin Georgescu supporters on TikTok and potentially convinced some of the voters that they are indeed supporting the independent candidate (although they have completely opposite views).

They reportedly denied any affiliation with Calin Georgescu on their official channels, but the viral TikTok videos were still seen by hundreds of thousands of people.

Update 10:22 PM: The first official results are below, after counting 3.26% of the votes. These are not relevant though, as small voting sections are counted first and usually these have different choices than larger ones in the big cities. Still, they can give an idea of where the votes are going – and they indeed show PSD placing first:

Update 10 PM: What do these exit polls mean? The first thing to note: these are just estimates and they were completely wrong last time, during the first round of the presidential elections.

The second thing to note is that extremist party AUR managed to get their highest score ever – after being around 9% just four months ago.

The third thing to note is that an easy majority is not easy to obtain. While it is improbable that an extremist government can be formed, a PSD-USR-PNL and potentially UDMR alliance might be needed to rule… and that alliance alone will be difficult to be kept alive.

Update 9 PM: Almost 53% of the Romanians votes today (compared to 33% in 2020) – highest presence in the past 20 years.

Here are the results of the first exit polls (but they don’t include diaspora results):

PSD: 26%
AUR: 19%
USR: 15.5%
PNL: 15.5%
SOS Romania: 5.5%
POT: 5.5%
UDMR: 5%

Update 4 PM: 39% voters right now, more than the TOTAL number of voters in the Parliamentary Elections 4 years ago.

It appears that the score is tight, based on the discussions on Romanian TV stations (I am following the debates on Youtube Live here).

“Tight” is better than anticipated by me, but they are basing their thoughts on exit poll results (which can’t be made public until the elections are over) – and these proved to be inaccurate. However, it does seem that more than two-party alliances will be needed for the majority (as is the current situation in Romania), no matter what side wins.

The day is not over yet, though. These final hours of the voting traditionally bring more votes to some of the younger political parties than established ones, although at the moment I am sure that everybody is trying to convince their voters to go and vote.

These are probably the most important elections in Romania’s democratic history, and based on the number of people voting, Romanians understand this.

Update 12:20 PM: Even more people are voting! Over 3 million people voted at the moment of writing this update, which is almost 20% of the voters. Over 6% more, than four years ago.

The mobilization is amazing and I am sure things will get even more crowded during the evening, when some political parties will better anticipate their chances and potentially try to mobilize even more people to vote.

You can take a look at the stats, updated in real-time, here.

Update 11 AM: Over 12% of Romanians cast their vote, compared to 8% four years ago. The elections seem to go well otherwise, with no major scandals/problems reported.

Update 10 AM: Most important political leaders voted by now, sending the expected messages to their supporters. Massive presence at the voting cabins, though – over 8% already, compared to 5.49% four years ago.

My wife and I voted as well. We see people flocking to vote. We saw a young lady helping an old man (probably her grandpa) go to the section. People are mobilizing well, but it’s impossible to guess who they are voting for.

Update 9 AM: The Romanians are voting! 800,00 people voted already (4.6%). The numbers are growing and it appears that we’ll have record-breaking numbers at the end of the day. Note: The elections end at 9PM in Romania.

Romanian Parliamentary Election results

Looking only at the political parties that managed to get enough votes (more than 5%), here is how the situation looks like – as per the first update above:

• PSD: 22.57%
• AUR: 18.17%
• PNL: 14.39%
• USR: 12.14%
• SOS: 7.63%
• UDMR: 6.45%
• POT: 6.28%

Romanian Parliamentary election odds

Before checking out some official polls (which turned out to be miles away from the reality in Romania during the presidential elections – so take them with a grain of salt), let me share my two cents on the upcoming Parliamentary elections.

I strongly believe that now, extremist parties (AUR and SOS Romania mainly) will win these elections. Recent political developments have fueled their popularity and I think that all four extremist parties, combined, will be in the Parliament with over 50% of the vote, but not less than 40%.

However, internal divisions between these parties may limit their ability to form a cohesive governing coalition. This friction could lead to further instability and uncertainty, even if they win the election.

This will also make Romania’s pro-European dream difficult for the next few years. At the same time though, it will be difficult for them to work together to rule Romania, as there are all sorts of frictions between them.

But, let’s see what the polls say! According to the final poll conducted before the parliamentary elections, here are the main standings:

• AUR: 22.4%
• PSD: 21.4%
• USR:17.5%
• PNL:13.4%
• UDMR: 5.5%
• SOS: 4.6%
• POT: 4.6%

The other political parties have a limited number of votes and I doubt the reality is different, but you can still check the full poll results below, via HotNews:

But I think we’re still going to have some surprises on Sunday. I believe that SOS Romania (an extremist party led by former AUR member Diana Iovanovici Sosoaca) and POT (another extremist party, backed up by surprise first round winner of the presidential elections, Calin Georgescu) will get more than 5% each and will be part of the next parliament.

I also believe that PNL will get less than 13% of the votes – probably their lowest score ever, while USR will get more than 17% (but still not more than PSD).

Implications for Romania’s Future

The outcome of these elections will significantly influence Romania’s trajectory. If extremist parties secure a dominant position, it could lead to increased political instability, challenges to democracy itself, and strained relationships with the European Union. Even more so, internal divisions within the far-right factions could make it difficult for them to govern effectively, taking Romania into a long-lasting political crisis.

The stakes are high, and the results will undoubtedly shape the nation’s path for years to come.